Food security: Should GM crops play a role?
What is food security?
There are many definitions for food security. Here is one from the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organisation: Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.
This is surely a justifiable goal, but food security is a hot issue politically, socially and scientifically because there are a number of things converging that will make food security difficult to achieve. The question being asked is, how is the world going to feed its growing population with potentially less water, land, fertilizers and fuel,. Climate change is also likely to make things challenging in some regions, including Australia.
But it is not just about growing more food. It’s about getting enough of the right food. In developing nations especially, one of the biggest health issues is deficiency in micronutrients such as iron, Vitamin A and iodine. Calories are not enough.
And it is not just about food itself. One serious problem is wastage. In the developed world we throw out perfectly good food. It is estimated between 30 and 50 percent of what farmers produce ends up in landfill. The developing world loses a lot to pests and spoilage in storage and handling. Then there is war, poverty, corruption, lack of infrastructure, poor distribution…and so on.
These are all challenges that need to be confronted if we are to achieve worldwide food security.
Join the discussion
At this National Science Week event we invite the public to join a panel in a discussion about food security and more specifically whether genetically modified crops should play a role. Although a powerful tool and just one of many in a plant scientist’s tool kit, the technologies (transgenics) used to generate genetically modified crops are likely to only make a minor contribution to the food security. Because of their controversy, however, it is important to talk about them and work out what is acceptable, when, and why – or why not.
The big questions
In the context of this event, the audience and panel will explore the following three questions with emphasis on the last one:
- How do we feed an extra three billion people with potential limits on land and resources?
- What sort of technologies and agricultural system(s) are required or acceptable to grow our food and ensure a secure food supply for the future, and by what means are we prepared to achieve it?
- Should GM technologies have a role in helping achieve global food security?
The things converging: What are we up against?
Based on current trends, here is an indication of some of the issues we will face in 30-40 years:
There will be less agricultural land. It is estimated by International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD, 2008) that about 12 million hectares of productive agricultural land are lost each year to land degradation and this will displace some 50 million people over the next 10 years.
But, the world will need to grow more food. The number of undernourished people in the world increased from 848 million to 963 million between 2003–05 and 2008 (IFPRI, 2008, FAO 2008). World food demand will be about 75 percent greater by 2050. Other sources have this figure at 100 percent
More protein: In some parts of the developing world the emerging middle class desire food products with greater protein such as milk, eggs and meat. According to the FAO (2003) meat consumption in developing countries has been growing at more than five percent per year over the last few decades with an expectation of continued future growth.
Greater urbanization: In 1950 around 30 percent of the world’s population lived in urban areas. By 2050 this will have increased to 70 percent. Based on projections of urban population growth (UN, 2007) China will need to build an additional two new cities the size of Shenzhen or more than three cities the size of Sydney, every year until 2030.
Costly fertilizers: Food and fibre productivity needs to be sustained or increased (at least 2 percent a year) but the cost and supply of nutrients will be a significant challenge. Some reports suggest that the world has reached “peak phosphorus” which means we are running out and phosphorus is needed to make fertilizer. Nitrogen fertilizer production is energy intensive and so the price will rise. Australia is particularly vulnerable as most soils are naturally low in phosphorus. Australia, in particular, needs substantial increases in the efficiency of our production and use of these fertilizer sources. (Hajkowicz, S & Moody, J. 2010, Our future world. An analysis of global trends, shocks and scenarios, CSIRO, Canberra)
For a more detailed coverage, see links to the following talks by Julian Cribb and Robin Batterham on the TechNyou website.
Links to reports and further information
From TechNyou website
Food Security: Greatest challenge of our time. Include links to video casts of Julian Cribb and Robin Batterham.
Thought for Food – from Uni Melbourne Voice
Reports
Australia and food security in a changing world. October 2010 PMSEIC . AustraliaandFoodSecurityinaChangingWorld
